I have recently co-authored a report suggesting, among other things, that DACCS will remains scarce and expensive at least to 2050 and likely beyond. The report can be found here:
The summary of the report is as follows.
Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) has the potential to contribute to meeting long-term climate goals. An ambitious deployment scenario shows DACCS growing rapidly to remove about 400 MtCO2 per annum (p.a.) by 2050, the equivalent of a little over 1% of 2022 emissions from the energy and industry sectors, and reaching one Gigatonne p.a. of removals before 2060.
However, achieving this scale of deployment will be enormously challenging, requiring strong, long-term policy support, and commitment of very large-scale physical and nancial resources. Reaching Gigatonne scale is likely to require cumulative funding globally into the trillions of U.S. dollars. As part of this, a Gigatonne of DACCS will need 1400-4200 TWh p.a. of low carbon energy, which compares with U.S. utility scale power generation of 4240 TWh in 2022, and enough geological storage capacity to accommodate an amount of CO2 more than an order of magnitude greater than is captured each year for storage at present.
DACCS is currently in the early stages of deployment and uncertainties on costs are correspondingly large. Removals from early full-scale plants coming online towards
2030 currently appear likely to cost $400-1000 per tonne of net CO2 removed from the atmosphere. Costs may fall to around $200-400/tCO2 sometime in the 2050s if large-scale deployment is successful. However, costs towards $200/tCO2 only appear achievable if costs of early projects are towards the bottom of the expected range and there is large- scale roll-out of DACCS. Aspirational goals of DACCS costs of $100/tCO2 seem unlikely to be achieved even in the longer term. Costs of DACCS may nevertheless be below the costs of abatement in some applications.
Early deployment of DACCS is essential for reducing costs to enable timely deployment at scale. is outcome would probably best be supported by a combination of capital subsidies and contractual payments or tax credits. In the medium to longer term, removals may realise value by inclusion in emissions trading systems.
The challenges of implementing DACCS at very large scale further emphasise the need for urgent and widespread action to reduce emissions, which should continue to be the main priority for meeting climate goals. Such action includes decarbonisation of electricity grids and, where appropriate, use of CCS with high capture rates for industrial emissions.
Adam Whitmore – 8th December 2023
On Climate Change Policy 