The UK’s political consensus on climate change

The major political parties all make commitments in their general election manifestos on policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  

All the UK’s main political parties have now published their manifestos for the forthcoming general election on 12^th December.  These include their programmes on climate change.

The most remarkable feature of the manifestos is the similarities between them.  All make specific commitments on climate change.  All envisage reaching net zero emissions.  All see an increased role for renewables, see the need to improve building insulation, and recognise the role of land use.  All refer to the opportunities created by a green economy.  Compared with only a few years ago this is substantial progress.  Of course, commitments set out now may never be implemented in government, but the fact that parties need to make such commitments is a sign of the increased recognition of what needs to be done.

The table below summarises some of the main points from each manifesto.

2019 UK general election manifesto commitments on climate change 

	Conservatives	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Green
Net-zero target date	2050	2030s	2045	2030
Renewables	40GW of offshore wind by 2030	90% renewable electricity and 50% renewable heat by 2030, including roll out of heat pumps and hydrogen	80% of electricity from renewables by 2030	70% of electricity from wind by 2030.
Buildings	£9.2 billion on improving energy efficiency	Upgrade insulation for almost all of 27 million homes, zero carbon standards for all new homes	Insulate all of Britain’s homes by 2030, new homes to be built to a low carbon standard, £6 billion p.a. on home insulation and low carbon heating	A million homes a year to near zero carbon, improved insulation for all who need it, roll out of heat pumps
Surface Transport	Consult on earliest date for phasing out sale of petrol and diesel cars	Improve public transport. Aim to end sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2030.	Invest in public transport, and make sure all new cars are electric by 2030	Major shift to public transport. All new vehicles zero carbon by 2030
Industry	£800 million on CCS, support gas for hydrogen	Invest in new technology	Supporting CCS and new low-carbon processes for steel and cement	Start deployment of CCS
Land Use	75,000 acres p.a. of additional trees	Ambitious programme of tree planting	Planting 60 million trees a year	700 million new trees by 2030.
International and supporting action	International partnership to tackle deforestation	Assess emissions in imports and suggest policies to tackle them.	Require companies to set targets compatible with the Paris Agreement	Economy wide carbon tax, with border tax on embedded carbon

Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 will be very difficult, requiring huge transformations of the UK energy system alongside changes in land use.  Reaching net zero earlier, and especially in 2030 or the 2030s as proposed by the Greens and Labour, seems impractical.  Otherwise, there is much to welcome among what is proposed.

However, there are significant differences between the parties along with the similarities.  The proposals from the Conservative party appear weaker than the others, and the manifesto does not contain a clear programme for the necessary scale of transition towards net zero emissions.  The other parties’ programmes look similar in many respects.  However, looking at the detail, the Liberal Democrats’ programme looks to provide the best set of policies, judged on a combination of comprehensive coverage, likely effectiveness, and realism.

The inclusion of extensive proposals from all parties for reducing emissions is an encouraging sign of how far the debate has come.  However, the real test will come when the next government must decide on implementation.

Adam Whitmore – 25^th November 2019